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Beijing has deployed its maritime law enforcement into the waters of the Diaoyu islands and unmanned aerial vehicles near outlying Japanese territory as Beijing ramps up strains over the Japanese prime minister’s comments regarding Taiwan.

Patrol Operations

This past Sunday, the China's maritime patrol stated that its ships carried out a “lawful patrol operation” through the territorial seas of the Diaoyu islands, which are under the control of Tokyo but also claimed by China.

“China coast guard vessel 1307 formation performed surveillance within the territorial waters of the Senkaku islands. This was a lawful patrol operation conducted by the China coast guard to protect its sovereign claims,” the statement said.

Bilateral Tensions

Beijing and Tokyo have consistently clashed around the islands but the recent developments occur during an escalating political dispute after the Japan's leader, the Japanese official, told parliament that if Beijing assaults democratically ruled Taiwan it might provoke a armed reaction from Tokyo.

That provoked a furious reaction from Beijing, which has indicated it demands a retraction from Takaichi.

Island's Stance

China claims the island as its own territory and intends to annex it under what it terms “reunification”. It has left open the military option. The island's administration and people categorically refuse the idea of Beijing's control – choosing to preserve the current situation without explicitly declaring themselves independent, but pledging to protect their sovereignty if required.

An military assault by China would threaten to spiral into a regional or global conflict, potentially involving the United States and other allies including Tokyo, which has territory just 110km (68 miles) from the island.

Defense Operations

On the island, the military authorities said on Sunday morning that it had observed 30 Chinese military aircraft, multiple naval vessels and one “official” ship, which was probably the maritime patrol, operating around the territory over the previous day.

Official charts released showed up to multiple UAVs flying between the island and the Japanese islands off its north-east coast, appearing to go unusually near to the nearby Japanese island. Chinese military transits there are not rare, but uncommon, and Chinese military activity in the island's ADIZ generally has been minimal in recent weeks.

Late on Saturday, the defense officials said China had been conducting another “combined military exercise” to “harass the airspace and sea around us”. It added Taiwan had dispatched military assets to monitor the situation. The island documents these operations a few times monthly as part of what Taipei says is an ongoing military pressure campaign.

Political Strain

Tokyo has been facing mounting pressure from Beijing since Takaichi made her comments, with China’s consul general in Osaka prompting a formal protest from Tokyo by commenting that “those who interfere will face consequences”.

China then called in Japan's diplomat for the first time in more than two years, and China’s defence ministry declared that any Japanese intervention would be doomed to fail.

Travel and Education Advisory

Late last week, China advised its people to avoid visiting Japan, leading Japan to request China to take “suitable actions”, though it provided no details.

Three Chinese airlines announced this weekend that tickets to Japan could be cancelled without penalty.

In another escalation, China’s government on Sunday advised students to rethink education plans in Japan, citing what it characterized as an unstable security environment.

Although not an outright prohibition, a dramatic reduction in the population of learners from China could have a negative impact on Japanese universities. A historic high of over 336,000 international students were studying in Japan last year, according to education statistics. They featured over 123,000 learners from China – by far the single biggest group.

Official Commentary

Earlier this weekend, a official press commentary accused Takaichi of staging a diplomatic maneuver that was “not just dangerously provocative but fundamentally perverse”.

“A clash between Tokyo and Beijing would not be a limited skirmish; it would probably involve other powers, including the United States, and could rapidly escalate to a large-scale conflict with severe repercussions.”

Policy Standpoints

The administration in Taipei says only its people can decide its future. Japanese leaders have previously avoided discussing the island openly when discussing such scenarios, maintaining a “deliberate vagueness” also favoured by Tokyo’s main security ally, the United States.

However, China’s ruling Communist party says the unification of Taiwan with the People’s Republic of China is “unavoidable”, and casts any opposition to it as escalatory. As it advances toward potential armed takeover, China has also been increasing its political operations and its statements towards Taiwan.