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Typically, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year trophy follows a straightforward pattern. It commonly acts as a form of mea culpa. We regret we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who oversaw the most dramatic resurgence is handed the award. However, it creates an annual argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're actually rewarding superior coaching or simply the biggest surprise.

However this year's race is distinctly different. The group of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The NFL has been messy, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers ascending together. Under an normal season, a coach guiding the his team to the top of the AFC would make him the clear favorite. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling year, he's up against five other elite candidates.

This is how the projected vote should shake out.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, 11-5

Coach of the Year selectors adore QBs. This is a tradition. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. A third in 2022. When you fix a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson didn't merely fixed his young quarterback; he's freed him. Given a proper system, Williams has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his rare talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank fourth in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become more decisive, far less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of freelancing. It is an attack constructed entirely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy helping of play-action and a creative aerial game that frees wide receiver targets all over the field. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws haven't been available, he's been able to conjure big plays out of nothing.

Johnson arrived to the Bears with a defined offensive blueprint. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the trenches, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a timing-based thrower – has worked. That's uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's rarer yet for a coach who entered the building with the immense expectations Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest name on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme dork but the kind of leader that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal season!

Where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears currently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a couple bounces of the ball, the team would be several victories worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the foundation is in place for long-term winning. But he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another first-time leader who has orchestrated a rapid turnaround. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete overall ball of his professional life. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more impressively, Coen has mastered the leadership aspects, which was not a given following his early press conference appearances and some of his offseason decisions.

The coach took over the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. In contrast to other coaches, who surrounded themselves with the ideal staff cocktail of new ideas and veteran savvy, he bet on first-timers. From the leader on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing in theory, but often fails in practice – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is learning a new job in real-time. Yet Coen has pulled everyone and all elements into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year collapse caused the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing home-run plays and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen recentered the offense around key players and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his legs more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jags have won seven games consecutively and will be the conference's No 3 seed. He receives the slightest knock in the standings because he took over a talented team, but he has proven he can get the most out of that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a veteran, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator could have ended the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. Through the middle point of the season, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, dropping to 23rd in EPA per pass attempt over the second half of the season, placing him only a single place ahead of other QBs.

Still