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Mounting apprehensions exist regarding the possibility of armed conflict among Horn of Africa neighbours, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as aggressive rhetoric has ratcheted up in recent weeks.

What Did Ethiopian Officials Declared?

Ethiopia's, being landlocked, calls for passage to the Red Sea through Eritrea has provoked a heated verbal exchange.

Ethiopian Prime Minister previously announced in 2023 that his country's access to the sea was an existential matter, remarks that Eritrea ignored.

Diplomatic connections between the neighboring nations have regularly been difficult. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a extensive sea border, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, leaving it landlocked.

In 1998, a border war broke out in which numerous people were killed.

Latest Remarks from Ethiopia's Leadership

Prime Minister Abiy and military leader General Birhanu Jula have directly stated control of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

In early September, Abiy said Ethiopia's "error" of losing entry to the sea as a because of Eritrean independence would be "addressed soon".

The Ethiopian envoy to Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be restored "by force".

Eritrea's Reaction to the Statements

Amid ongoing warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's response has been confined to concise remarks on X from Communications Head Yemane Gebremeskel.

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's demand for access to the Red Sea labeling it "hazardous" and a "toxic agenda" of "expansionism" – a strategy of claiming back former lands.

The information ministry alerted on recently that moves to legitimise "obvious provocation" would have significant repercussions for Ethiopia and its neighbors and is a "limit that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Defense Movements on the Ground

Currently, there are no reports of major military movements in the boundary zones between the two countries.

Nonetheless, in Ethiopia, national TV has broadcast graduation ceremonies of many recruits at different defense facilities.

The leader of human resources department of the defense force, the officer, commented lately in an interview that the defense forces was in a "secure situation" as "numerous of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a message to our opponents".

Previous Background of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was administered by colonial powers.

Following Italy's defeat, it was then administered by the UK forces before evolving into a integrated region of Ethiopia.

However in 1962 Emperor Haile Selassie I cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into Ethiopia.

A thirty-year civil war occurred, ending with military reversal in the early 1990s. Autonomy was then confirmed by the population in a plebiscite in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the leadership in Ethiopia's capital and Asmara, but they disagreed over the exact location of their common border, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this finished in a truce in 2000, it was partially applied, and the both countries remained at odds.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrea's leader President Isaias. The two endorsed a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a move that gained Abiy the prestigious award.

The both administrations were then cooperators in Ethiopia's 2020-2022 internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet relations have since broken down anew.