A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is prepared.
That represents the warning from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements for and against unification has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two essays that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and societal data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will ultimately lose but each side has got something to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
